'The End of MAGA? Part 2' by Steve

Donald Trump’s 2024 triumph, whether certified or contested, fused two ostensibly complementary but ultimately incompatible forces: MAGA (Make America Great Again) and MAHA (Make America Healthy Again). MAGA is the populist-nationalist juggernaut—border walls, China tariffs, “America First” isolationism, and a visceral rejection of woke corporatism. MAHA, crystallized by Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s endorsement and the wellness-to-conspiracy pipeline, promises anti-pharma rebellion, organic food mandates, and a war on seed oils, SSRIs, and 5G.

On X and Rumble, the fusion looked seamless: RFK Jr. railing against Big Pharma beside Trump vowing to “drain the swamp” of FDA bureaucrats.

Yet the marriage is already consummating its divorce in the honeymoon suite. MAGA’s rank-and-file—Rust Belt evangelicals, ex-cops, small-business owners—view bodily autonomy through the lens of Second Amendment absolutism, not vaccine skepticism. MAHA’s vanguard—yoga moms in Lululemon, crypto bros microdosing psilocybin, and Barstool conservatives turned carnivore—see the state as the primary pathogen. The overlap is tactical, not ontological. When Trump appoints a Pfizer lobbyist to HHS transition (as rumored in November 2025 leaks), the MAHA wing screams betrayal. When he green-lights Operation Warp Speed 2.0 for bird flu, MAGA shrugs—so long as the shots are voluntary and the border stays closed.

The fracture is not theoretical. By February 2026, #MAHAGate trends after Kennedy is sidelined to a toothless “Wellness Czar” role. Substack manifestos from Tucker Carlson’s orbit declare the merger “stillborn.” The coalition’s binding agent—Trump’s person—expires the moment he leaves the stage.

While Republicans bicker over fluoride and tariffs, Democrats have already won the culture war by abdicating the field. They did not need to pass a single law. They simply allowed corporate America, academia, and the national security state to embed progressive norms into the operating system of daily life. The proof is everywhere:

• Fortune 500 DEI mandates outlive Trump’s executive orders.
• ESG scoring survives SEC deregulation because BlackRock’s clients demand it.
• Pronoun policies in the military persist under a “readiness” exception.
• Critical race theory rebrands as “belonging initiatives” in 87 percent of public-school districts (EdWeek, 2025).

Conservatives mistake noise for victory. Bud Light’s sales crater, but Target’s Pride onesies sell out in blue cities. Disney+ loses subscribers, yet Marvel’s non-binary Loki trends on TikTok. The right celebrates cancellations while the left institutionalizes its gains.

The fatal blow comes from within. Two groups—libertarians and LGBTQ activists—once marginal to the GOP, now function as cultural fifth columns. Their victories are not concessions; they are entrenchments that render traditional conservatism incoherent.

• Abortion restrictions (“The state has no compelling interest pre-viability.”)
• Trans youth healthcare bans (“Parental rights include gender-affirming care.”)
• Drug prohibition (psilocybin decriminalization in red states accelerates).

The Mises Caucus platform in 2025 explicitly endorses parental autonomy in medical decisions for minors. This is not a slippery slope; it is a cliff. The same argument that defeats OSHA vaccine rules defeats state-level heartbeat bills. By 2027, 15 GOP-controlled state legislatures pass “medical freedom” laws that functionally codify Roe-lite frameworks. Social conservatives howl, but the libertarian tail wags the dog.

The Log Cabin Republicans were once a punchline. Post-Obergefell, they became a Trojan horse with a corner office. Their influence is not in headcount but in donor leverage. Silicon Valley billionaires—Peter Thiel, David Sacks, the PayPal mafia—fund the GOP on the condition that social conservatism stays in the 1950s. The 2024 platform’s deletion of marriage language was not oversight; it was extortion.

The mechanism is simple:

• Tech money floods GOP super PACs.
• Candidates must signal “live and let live” on gay issues to access it.
• Voters in suburban Philadelphia and Orange County notice the shift and stay home.

By 2026, 40 percent of GOP House members have perfect Human Rights Campaign scores on “workplace fairness.” The evangelical base—once 25 percent of primary voters—shrinks to 12 percent. They do not switch parties; they disengage.

The coalition does not fracture cleanly; it liquefies. Here is the timeline:

2025–2026: The Honeymoon Purge
Trump’s DOJ targets Big Pharma executives (MAHA cheers). Simultaneously, his FDA pick fast-tracks mRNA bird flu shots (MAGA shrugs). RFK Jr. resigns in a Substack broadside. X’s algorithm splits: #MAGAMondays vs. #MAHATuesdays. Engagement collapses 60 percent in shared spaces.

2026 Midterms: The Suburban Revolt
GOP holds the House by 8 seats, but losses in GA-06, TX-32, and CA-45 signal doom. Exit polls:
Independents cite “chaos” (MAHA infighting).
Evangelicals cite “betrayal” (libertarian abortion laws).
Gay professionals cite “extremism” (Lingering 2024 culture-war ads).

2027: The Libertarian Schism
The House Freedom Caucus splits. Massie wing demands a federal “Bodily Autonomy Amendment.” Greene wing demands a national abortion ban. The speaker’s gavel passes to a moderate who schedules neither. #RINO trends for 42 straight days.

2028 Primaries: The Five-Way Pileup
Candidates:

• MAGA heir (Vance: tariffs + deportations)
• MAHA purist (RFK Jr. runs as independent)
• Libertarian insurgent (Massie: gold standard + decrim)
• Tech GOP (Sacks: AI deregulation + gay marriage plank)
• Democrat (Newsom: “competence” reboot)

The GOP nominee wins 34 percent. RFK Jr. takes 11 percent in Michigan and Pennsylvania. Democrats win with 43 percent.

George W. Bush unified evangelicals and libertarians via:

• 9/11 (external enemy)
• Tax cuts (economic bribe)
• Partial-birth abortion ban (cultural red meat)

None are replicable. No terrorist attack can unify a coalition that views the FDA as the deep state. Tax cuts lose salience when the debt hits 150 percent of GDP. Abortion is now a states’ issue—and red states are legalizing it under “freedom” rhetoric.

The right’s cultural institutions are hollowed out:

• Heritage Foundation pivots to ESG “reform” to keep donor money.
• CPAC features drag queens in 2027 to “own the libs.”
• Focus on the Family rebrands as “Family Wellness Network” and promotes mindfulness.

Meanwhile, the left’s victories are baked into the bureaucracy:

• Title IX reinterpretations survive judicial review via “disparate impact” precedents.
• EEOC guidelines on pronouns are enforced by private-sector compliance firms.
• Public health mandates expand under “emergency preparedness” statutes.

The ultimate irony: the libertarian–gay alliance is the most durable bloc in American politics. They agree on:

• Drug legalization (ecstasy at Circuit parties; weed at Bitcoin conferences)
• Free speech absolutism (Section 230 defense; bakery cake wars)
• Anti-statism (police reform + defund the FDA)

This bloc does not need Trump. It has:

• Money (Thiel’s $500 million in 2024 cycle)
• Media (Joe Rogan, 15 million listeners)
• Youth (Gen Z libertarians outnumber Gen Z evangelicals 3:1)

The old consensus is dead:

• Traditional marriage → “Religious liberty carve-out” in civil rights law.
• Pro-life → “Fetal personhood” bills fail in red states.
• Parental rights → Undercut by libertarian “medical freedom.”
• The right’s new platform is negative liberty only:
• Lower taxes
• Fewer regulations
• More crypto

It is Thatcherism without the moral majority. It wins CPAC straw polls and loses suburbia.

A rump conservatism could survive by:

• Abandoning culture entirely (focus on fiscal federalism).
• Embracing MAHA statism (nationalize health via tariffs on imports).
• Splitting the party (MAGA nationalist party + libertarian tech party).

None are viable. The first cedes the future. The second alienates the base. The third guarantees minority status.

The Trump coalition was a hostile takeover, not a reformation. MAGA and MAHA are oil and water; libertarians and gay activists are the emulsifiers that dissolved the host. Democrats did not need to fight—they simply waited for the right to commit suicide by principle. The culture war was won in HR departments, not ballot boxes. By the time conservatives notice, the battlefield is a corporate campus with mandatory pronouns and optional vaccines.

The autopsy is simple: Trump was the last glue. Without him, the pieces fly apart. With him, they were never truly together. The conservative movement did not lose the culture—it dissolved into it.

Editorial comments expressed in this column are the sole opinion of the writer.