The race for House control is a political game of inches. Democrats need to net four seats in the 435-member chamber to win a majority after two years in the political wilderness of the House minority. That’s no easy task because most House seats are drawn to favor one party safely.
Obvious targets for Democrats and, conversely, Republicans trying to expand their slim majority are seats held by lawmakers from the party opposite of the presidential candidate that would have prevailed there in the 2020 election. That includes 18 House districts represented by Republicans where Joe Biden would have won more votes in 2020 than then-President Donald Trump, who is seeking his old job as the 2024 Republican nominee. On the other side of the political ledger, Democrats hold eight seats in districts where Trump would have won more votes than Biden.
The race for House control is playing out amid the fierce presidential fight between Trump and Biden’s successor as Democratic nominee after his weak June 27 debate performance led him to bow out of the race, Vice President Kamala Harris. Each White House hopeful figures to offer some coattails to congressional candidates of their party, though local issues are often higher priorities.
Here are 10 of the most competitive 2024 House races. Some are in presidential battlegrounds, including two Michigan contests, while others are in deep blue or red states.
Alaska's At-Large Congressional District
Rep. Mary Peltola (D-AK) won an August 2022 special election and then a full, two-year House term by taking advantage of a split among Republicans in a GOP-leaning state. Plus, Alaska’s ranked choice voting system helped Peltola, a former state lawmaker, prevail against the same pair of Republicans in both contests. Peltola’s 2024 reelection bid will likely be tougher, with Trump expected to easily beat Harris in The Last Frontier.
Peltola again faces Republican Nick Begich III, a technology entrepreneur with a long Alaska political lineage. His grandfather and namesake, the late Rep. Nick Begich, won Alaska’s lone House seat in 1970, before a fatal plane crash in which his body was never found.
California's 27th Congressional District
On paper, this northern Los Angeles County seat should be an easy pickup for House Democrats. After all, in 2020, the district, taking in the suburban and desert-area cities of Lancaster, Palmdale, and Santa Clarita, would have backed Biden over Trump 55.1% to 42.7%. But Rep. Mike Garcia (R-CA) has proven an elusive target for Democrats, winning a May 2020 special election and twice nabbing full House terms.
California's 45th Congressional District
Charges of communist sympathies hurled between Rep. Michelle Steel (R-CA) and Democratic opponent Derek Tran could be straight out of a Cold War campaign in 1984, let alone 2024. Rather than the old Soviet Union, the foreign bogeyman is now China. The campaign of Steel, first elected to Congress in 2020 as a member of the Orange County Board of Supervisors, recently sent a campaign mailer showing Tran smiling in front of the hammer-and-sickle emblem of the Chinese Communist Party.
Maine's 2nd Congressional District
Republicans are confident that not all that glitters is Golden. That would be Rep. Jared Golden (D-ME), who is seeking reelection in a sprawling, rural district that Trump won easily in 2020 and where he remains popular. Golden, a Marine Corps veteran who served in Afghanistan and Iraq, has long kept his distance from national Democrats, frequently voting against House party leadership. He faces Republican state Rep. Austin Theriault, a former NASCAR driver.
Michigan's 7th Congressional District
Democrats are playing defense in this Lansing area and northwestern Detroit exurbs district. Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) is vacating this longtime swing seat for a Senate run. Republican Tom Barrett, a 21-year Army veteran who was a helicopter pilot in Afghanistan and a former state legislator, is making another run at it after losing to Slotkin in 2022. The Democratic nominee is former state Sen. Curtis Hertel, scion of a prominent local political dynasty who previously was Ingham County register of deeds and a county commissioner.
Michigan's 8th Congressional District
The third time may be a charm for Paul Junge, the Republican nominee in this district covering Flint and the Tri-Cities areas. The attorney, former news broadcaster, and one-time Trump administration official lost to Slotkin in 2020 during the congresswoman’s first reelection bid, representing a previous version of her current south-central Michigan district.
Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District
Rep. Don Bacon (R-NE) hopes to sizzle in his reelection bid. Yet the congressman, first elected in 2016, in effect has two rivals — Democratic nominee Tony Vargas, a state senator in Nebraska, and the party’s presidential ticket of Harris and her running mate, Gov. Tim Walz (D-MN).
New York's 4th Congressional District
Freshman Rep. Anthony D’Esposito (R-NY) faces one of the most difficult districts to defend in the country, trying to hold this southern Nassau County seat on Long Island. In 2020, Biden would have beaten Trump there, 56.8% to 42.2%. Laura Gillen, a Democrat and former Hempstead town supervisor who lost to D’Esposito in the 2022 midterm elections, hopes that presidential year turnout and a sizable financial advantage can help her flip it.
Oregon's 5th Congressional District
In her reelection bid, first-term Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R-OR) has emphasized a relatively centrist voting record in Congress and an accomplished run as mayor of Happy Valley, outside of Portland, from 2011-19. She has good reason to keep her distance from national Republicans because the southern Portland suburbs and central Oregon district would have backed Biden over Trump 53.2% to 44.4% in 2020.
Washington's 3rd Congressional District
The presidential race has taken a dark turn, with Harris calling Trump a “fascist” while the former president has labeled his Democratic rival a “retard” and lobbed profanity-laced insults at Harris. Still, the pair look like best friends compared to candidates in this southwestern Washington House district. Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-WA) and her repeat Republican rival, Joe Kent, seem to utterly loathe each other, barely able to stand nearby on debate stages or sit feet apart at candidate forums.
Editorial comments expressed in this column are the sole opinion of the writer.
