"All freeman residents will be bound by your laws, & subject to punishment under them—and of right, ought to be entitled to a voice in making them," -- Andrew Jackson First American territorial governor of Florida from March to December 1821
“…the American continents, by the free and independent condition which they have assumed and maintain, are henceforth not to be considered as subjects for future colonization by any European powers."— James Monroe Seventh Annual Message to Congress, 1823
Over the past decade, the United States has witnessed one of the most striking natural experiments in governance. On opposite sides of the continent, California Governor Gavin Newsom and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis charted radically divergent paths through the COVID-19 pandemic and its aftermath. The results speak volumes: California hemorrhaged over 1.2 million residents and reached the bottom of national rankings for net migration, while Florida absorbed the largest influx of newcomers in America and established itself as the premier destination for families and aspiring homeowners.
Gavin Newsom was first elected as the 40th governor of California on November 6, 2018, with 62% of the vote. Following a successful 2021 recall defense, his re-election in 2022 was widely expected due to a strong Democratic advantage in voter registration.
Ron DeSantis has served as the 46th governor of Florida since January 2019. A Republican, he was narrowly elected in 2018 and subsequently won a landslide reelection for a second term in 2022.
A comprehensive analysis of the data reveals a stark reality. From 2020 to 2024, California experienced a net domestic outmigration of 1,234,030 people—the worst in the entire nation, ranking 50th with a rate of -37.04 migrants per 1,000 residents. Florida, conversely, led the country with a net domestic migration gain of 872,722 people—a rate of +40.52 per 1,000 inhabitants. While California lost population each year of the pandemic era, Florida rewrote the record books, peaking at 314,000 net new domestic residents in 2022 alone. Even after nationwide migration slowed in 2024, Florida maintained its position as the single most attractive state for Americans seeking opportunity, welcoming over 67,000 net newcomers compared to California's continued exodus.
The employment statistics tell an equally damning story for California. Despite having the largest economy of any state, California's unemployment rate consistently outpaces Florida's and the national average. As of 2024, California's unemployment rate stood at 5.4%, while Florida maintained a significantly lower 3.4%. During the pandemic recovery, this gap became a chasm. Where Florida swiftly reopened businesses and allowed workers to return to their livelihoods, California maintained some of the strictest and longest-lasting lockdowns in the nation. The economic consequences were devastating: by October 2021, California had lost millions of jobs, while Florida's unemployment fell below the national average, and consumer spending—measured by sales tax collections—nearly returned to pre-pandemic levels. Theme parks reopened in June 2020, providing a lifeline to thousands of workers deemed "non-essential" in Newsom's California.
Perhaps nowhere is Florida's superiority more evident than in housing affordability—a critical issue for young families and first-time buyers. While California's median home price has rocketed past $800,000, Florida's remains approximately $400,000—exactly half. This affordability extends beyond purchase prices. Monthly rents in California average $2,828 for a residential unit, compared to Florida's $1,300. For a typical family earning $75,000 annually, California offers virtually no path to homeownership, while Florida provides genuine entry-level opportunities. The corporate exodus reflects these dynamics. Companies from D-Wave Quantum to Wells Fargo have relocated headquarters or major divisions from California to Florida, seeking not just lower taxes but also cheaper operating costs and employees who can actually afford to live where they work.
Tax burden represents another glaring disadvantage for California. The Golden State imposes the second-highest state income tax burden in America, with a top marginal rate of 13.3%. Households earning over $200,000 pay an average of $45,000 annually in state and local taxes—consumption that cripples purchasing power. Florida imposes zero state income tax, putting thousands of dollars back into family budgets each year. According to financial analyses, a high-income California professional can save between $5,800 and $7,200 annually by relocating to Florida—a difference that compounds to $116,000-$144,000 over two decades. Over a career, the savings can approach half a million dollars.
Demographic trends reinforce Florida's ascendancy. The Sunshine State leads the nation in new business formations, recording approximately 56,157 monthly applications compared to California's 48,698. Even accounting for population size, Florida's entrepreneurial energy demonstrates a state where aspiration still meets opportunity. Recent job growth figures underscore this momentum: Florida posted a positive 0.4% employment increase from December 2024 to December 2025, while California registered a decline of -0.1%. When jobs disappear from California—whether through business relocations like Oracle and Palantir or simple downsizing—they increasingly appear in Florida.
The verdict of the 2020s is clear. While Governor Newsom presided over a period of unprecedented outmigration from California and policies that critics argue prioritized ideological commitments over economic realities, Governor DeSantis demonstrated that public health protocols need not destroy economic vitality. Florida's timely reopening, rejection of prolonged lockdowns, and commitment to limited government translated into superior employment outcomes, population growth, and housing accessibility. Florida has become the modern embodiment of the American Dream—where ambition, family formation, and homeownership remain achievable goals.
California, under Newsom's leadership, has become increasingly synonymous with the American Nightmare: unaffordable, overtaxed, and hollowed out by the departure of those who once built its prosperity.
Approximately 420,000 babies were born annually in California between 2020 and 2024, reflecting a consistent decline in the state's birth rate to near-historic lows.
220,000 babies are born annually in Florida, with total births from 2020 through 2024 exceeding 1 million. According to the 2025 March Of Dimes Report Card For Florida, early 2025 data suggests a continuing, stable trend in this range.
The data leaves little room for debate. A family in Florida faces unemployment rates two full percentage points lower, housing costs 50% cheaper, and tax burdens that can save a lifetime of earnings. These aren't abstract policy debates—they are the tangible, measurable metrics of quality of life. In the competition between America's two mega-states, Florida has emerged as the undisputed champion of the post-COVID era, while California continues to pay the price for years of misguided leadership.
"As California goes, so goes the nation" is widely attributed to former California Governor and U.S. Supreme Court Chief Justice Earl Warren. Warren, who served as the state’s governor from 1943 to 1953, used this phrase to highlight California's role as a trendsetter in social, political, and economic movements that would eventually spread across the United States. It took Covid and two Gavin Newsom terms to ruin it.
Editorial comments expressed in this column are the sole opinion of the writer
