San Francisco saw one of the highest percentage population losses in the country during the first year of the pandemic. It may not recover from that decline, according to a new state forecast that projects a stagnant population through 2060.
Fewer pregnancies and an aging population mean that deaths are projected to outpace births starting in 2024, according to the Department of Finance. Though net migration is expected to turn positive next year, the natural decrease in population means the city is projected to fall to about 828,000 residents in 2023, followed by slow growth. By 2060, the city’s population is projected at 845,000, still around 25,000 people or 2.9% below 2020 baseline levels.
“It’s going to be hard to get back to those levels just because we’re continuing the demographic trends,” Andres Gallardo, a Department of Finance demographer. “We see low births. We see low migration.”
