The model at issue is called the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP) Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA). In 2023, it was deemed in a National Hurricane Center (NHC) report [PDF] to be one of the two "best performers," the other being a model called IVCN (Intensity Variable Consensus).
A 2020 contract between NOAA and RenaissanceRe Risk Sciences, disclosed in response to a Freedom of Information Act request by The Washington Post, requires NOAA to keep HCCA forecasts – which incorporate a proprietary technique from RenaissanceRe – secret for five years.
The deal is scheduled to expire next year, and NOAA reportedly expects to release HCCA model data in time for the 2025 hurricane season.
But in the aftermath of Hurricane Helene – which hit the US southeast, left a 800-mile trail of destruction, and is said to have killed at least 130 people since Thursday – there are calls to make HCCA data available sooner. It's hoped the model's output will help people make better decisions, potentially life- and property-saving, ahead of incoming super-storms.
"Placing business interests over public disclosure cannot be the precedent for public-private industry partnerships, and certainly not for projects that have the ability to save lives," said Lauren Harper, Daniel Ellsberg Chair on Government Secrecy at Freedom of the Press Foundation, in an article last week.
"It also goes against the United States’ commitment to open data and making taxpayer-funded research available to the public."
Harper also argues that limiting the information about hurricanes hinders the work of other government agencies including the Federal Emergency Management Agency. As many as 1,000 active-duty soldiers, as well as FEMA agents and resources, have been sent to the aftermath of Hurricane Helene to help in the recovery.
"Going forward, [NOAA] should not preemptively agree to withhold vital information from the public," Harper said. "NOAA should immediately reverse course and make its best hurricane predictions available, citing the clear and immediate harm members of the public will face if they do not have access to the data."
