America’s election cycles never end. As soon as a newly elected politician gets to Washington, D.C., they begin fundraising for the next election, and they put on shows in congressional hearings for soundbites to say, ‘Look at me.’ 2026 is another important election, but aren’t they all, and doesn’t it seem like we just had an election? It truly never ends.
As the calendar turned to 2026, I began considering the upcoming midterm election and what it means. I also looked at history going back 100 years. What can we learn from midterm elections when combined with a president’s approval rating? What senators may be vulnerable this year? What about the House of Representatives? Will the Democrats take back control of the House with a Majority Leader Hakeem Jeffries? It’s not too early to consider all of these things and ask those questions. Before you know it, November will be here.
First question: What is at stake? The answer: the balance of power in both chambers of Congress. Currently, Republicans have control, although the margins are very slim in both. In the Senate, there are 53 Republicans, 45 Democrats, and 2 Independents who caucus with the Democrats, Bernie Sanders and Angus King of Maine. The House currently has 219 Republicans and 213 Democrats. A full House is 435.
Historically, the U.S. President’s party has, on average, lost 26 to 28 seats in the House of Representatives and three to four seats in the Senate during midterm elections.
The president’s party has lost ground in the House in 36 of the 39 midterm elections since the U.S. Civil War. The pattern is less consistent in the Senate, but losses are still the norm.
Since World War II, the average losses have been consistent with the general historical trend: approximately 26 House seats and 4 Senate seats. Midterms are generally seen as a referendum on the incumbent president’s performance. The opposition party is often more energized, leading to a weaker turnout among the president’s supporters.
The number of seats lost is often correlated with the president’s job approval rating: Presidents with approval ratings above 50% see an average loss of about 14 House seats. Presidents with approval ratings below 50% can see average losses of 33-37 House seats. What can we make of this history as we look at Donald Trump and the November 2026 midterm election?
Trump’s approval rating has generally declined since he began his second term in January 2025, to 47%, largely due to concerns over the economy and the cost of living or affordability. As of mid-January 2026, Donald Trump’s overall approval rating averages approximately 42% across various polls and aggregators. This figure reflects a net negative rating, as his disapproval numbers are consistently higher, generally around 53-56%.
The highest job approval rating for any president going into a midterm was Bill Clinton’s in 1998, and the Democrats added 5 House seats. The lowest approval rating ever was 33% in 1946 for Democrat Harry Truman. He lost 55 House seats. The most ever was in 2010, thanks to the Tea Party movement. Barack Obama had a 44% approval rating that year and lost a record 63 House seats.
I believe the best historical parallel is Ronald Reagan in 1982. I compare Jimmy Carter’s presidency with Joe Biden’s frequently. Jimmy Carter had the highest inflation in American history, the highest gas prices ever, and turmoil around the world, especially with the Iran hostage crisis.
Joe Biden, like Carter, had the highest inflation since Carter was president and the highest gas prices ever. Biden also shared a world in turmoil as Jimmy Carter did. The Ukraine-Russia war started and continued during Biden’s term. He also dealt with Hamas invading Israel and the aftermath in Gaza. On Reagan’s first day in office, the hostages were released from Iran, Trump ended Gaza, and he still waits for movement for peace in Ukraine.
Reagan had a mess to clean up when he took office in 1981, and by 1982, the American people had not yet felt the impact of the Reagan policy that would lead to decades of economic growth. As a result, Reagan’s approval rating in 1982 was the same as Donald Trump’s today, 42%. Reagan lost 28 House seats that year.
An interesting sidenote about Reagan’s landslide victory over Carter in 1980 was that he picked up 34 House seats and 12 Senate seats, giving Republicans control of the Senate for the first time since 1954. Even with the 34 House seats picked up, the Democrats still firmly held power in that chamber with a 242-192 advantage, forcing Reagan to work with Tip O’Neil and the Democrats to pass legislation.
Like Reagan, Donald Trump had a mess to clean up when he entered office, and like Reagan, his approval rating is hovering around 42%. While it’s too early to predict House races, the current betting odds have the Democrats at 80% to give Hakeem Jeffries the reins to control the government. Most House races are decided by 30% or more. The majority power is decided by about 25 seats, which are decided by 5% or less. Some of those seats are decided by as few as a few hundred votes.
The Republicans are also more vulnerable in the Senate in 2026. In 2024, Republicans were defending only 10 seats, none of which were in danger of losing. They managed to pick up enough seats to gain control of the gavel for Majority Leader John Thune, but in the upcoming midterm, the Republicans will defend 22 seats. There will be a greater opportunity for the Democrats to flip some of those seats.
Ultimately, it will be which party turns out the vote, and historically, the Republicans are terrible in midterm elections and even worse when Trump is not at the top of the ticket. It appears that MAGA only votes when Trump runs, and that was apparent in the New Jersey and Virginia governor races in November.
Voter turnout for the GOP was low in other places, too. In Georgia, 2 Republicans lost statewide races. In New York, Onondaga County/Syracuse, flipped from Republican to Democrat county government for the first time in 50 years. The special election in Tennessee’s Congressional District 7 in December also saw low turnout.
Today, the Democrats are charged with energy, and even though they have a dismal national approval rating, that won’t matter for those 25 congressional seats that determine power, or the vulnerable Senate seats, if the Republicans and MAGA don’t turnout together to vote and protect the Donald Trump presidency.
I wouldn’t even think about predicting any of these races today, and even though the sentiment of this opinion article may seem negative. It is based on historical facts, but a lot can change between now and November. A year is an eternity in politics. Use this history to motivate yourself to get to work today to preserve the power of politics in the nation’s capital.
Editorial comments expressed in this column are the sole opinion of the writer
