Remember that it’s generally uncommon for Republicans to lead on the generic ballot, more uncommon for them to lead big, and really uncommon for them to lead big far in advance of the next election. In red-wave cycles, generic ballot polling is typically competitive until the final months before the election, when Republicans begin to break away. That’s what happened in 2014. The GOP did lead big a year before the 2010 midterms, but (a) that was at a moment when the backlash to ObamaCare was in full swing and (b) they went on to win 63 seats in the House the following year.
That’s the closest analogue to what Democrats are staring at right now. A total wipeout next fall.
Republicans now sport a historic 10-point advantage when Americans are asked which party they prefer to control Congress, holding a 44%-34% margin over Democrats. That’s up from a 2-point Republican advantage in the October survey.
In the past 20 years, CNBC and NBC surveys have never registered a double-digit Republican advantage on congressional preference, with the largest lead ever being 4 pints for the GOP.
“If the election were tomorrow, it would be an absolute unmitigated disaster for the Democrats,″ said Jay Campbell, partner at Hart Research Associates and the Democratic pollster for the survey.
