As a Heartland Journal correspondent covering the evolving landscape of conservative politics in this post-Trump era—yes, folks, it's February 2026, and the MAGA movement is still roaring—We've just dug into a provocative Substack article by Roger Simon titled "J. D. Vance Has a Tucker Carlson Problem."
Published on December 20, 2025, amid holiday cheer and midterm jitters, Simon’s American Refugees blog sounds the alarm on internal GOP fractures that could derail the party's momentum heading into 2028.
Simon kicks off with a stark reality check: With Democrats eyeing a comeback, a left-wing president could undo Trump's legacy faster than you can say "executive order." He paints Vice President J.D. Vance—former Ohio senator, "Hillbilly Elegy" author, and Trump's handpicked successor—as the clear frontrunner for the Republican nomination. Vance's star power is undeniable, bolstered by Trump's "dream team" endorsement alongside figures like Marco Rubio, who's already bowed out if Vance runs. Even Ron DeSantis gets a nod for his bold moves in Florida, like banning CAIR and the Muslim Brotherhood, and pushing to slash property taxes. These are the kind of America-First policies GOP voters love, reminding us why the GOP base remains fired up.
But here's where Simon drops the hammer: The party faces a brewing "civil war," fueled by provocateurs like Candace Owens (dismissed as a "crackpot") and, more troublingly, Tucker Carlson. Once a conservative news staple, Carlson's influence lingers, but Simon argues his recent antics at events like TPUSA's AmFest in Phoenix are toxic. Carlson's praise for Islam as "mostly good" and his apparent shrug at Sharia law's harsh elements—think wives obligated to obey husbands sexually, or needing four male witnesses for rape convictions—drew crickets from the crowd. Simon lists Sharia's misogynistic rules chapter and verse, from inheritance disparities to apostasy penalties, painting Carlson as out of touch with conservative values.
Worse, Simon calls out Carlson's "outrageous" jabs at Jews and Israel, labeling the Jewish state "insignificant" despite blockbuster deals like a $31 billion LNG sale to Egypt and billions more in missile tech to Germany. This, Simon warns, risks alienating key allies: Jewish voters shifting rightward (hello, Orthodox communities growing fastest) and evangelicals, the rock-solid base. If Carlson's alt-right flirtations turn them off, they might sit out 2028, handing the keys back to the radical left.
The crux? This is Vance's headache. Simon urges him to pull a "Sister Souljah" moment—think Bill Clinton distancing from extremists—to sideline Carlson without full-blown war. Fail, and the GOP sinks. TPUSA's been a bulwark, with Ben Shapiro earning cheers for calling out Carlson, but Vance needs to lead.
Not mentioned, but crucially important is that Buckley Carlson, a former Capitol Hill aide to Republican Jim Banks as a staff assistant before becoming communications director in 2021, and the son of Tucker Carlson, is currently in the Vice President’s press office.
Simon's piece is a timely wake-up call. We've seen how infighting crippled Democrats; we can't afford the same. Carlson's charisma built audiences, but if his views veer into alienating territory, it's fair game to critique. Vance, with his blue-collar roots and policy chops, embodies the future—pro-Israel, anti-woke, America First. Distancing from divisiveness isn't weakness; it's strategy. Yet, Simon overlooks Carlson's valid critiques of endless wars and elite overreach, which resonate with many conservatives. Balance is key: Unity doesn't mean uniformity.
Mr Simon’s Substack is must-read fodder for Republicans plotting 2028. It substantiates fears with specifics, avoiding hysteria. If Vance heeds the advice, he could solidify his path to the White House. But ignore the Carlson conundrum? That's a recipe for midterm malaise turning into electoral disaster. Heartland Journal will be watching—and reporting—every step awaiting a “Brother Carlson” moment.
