Commentator Michael Lind concludes that “Trumpism” is the future for the Republican Party, which will have to “move left on entitlements.” But it’s the future only if the future doesn’t know math.
Trump has said he would make Social Security solvent by cracking down on “waste, fraud, and abuse,” by cutting foreign aid“to countries that want to kill us” and by making the economy larger. But the program has a $10.7 trillion shortfall(measured in net present value): Cutting waste and foreign aid won’t get you even a significant fraction of the way to closing it.
And even if we take a leap of faith on the economic impact of a Trump presidency, it wouldn’t close the gap either. Higher growth means higher wages, and benefit levels automatically rise after wages do. We want higher wages, of course, but they’re not a substitute for getting the program’s promises and resources into balance.
Trump is right that Social Security and Medicare are popular, and that Republicans seeking to make the programs solvent and otherwise reform them need to be careful. But they already know that, and they have been careful. Republicans aren’t for cutting Social Security benefits from their current level; they’re for reducing the growth of benefits. Ryan’s Medicare proposal leaves current retirees and near-retirees untouched, and guarantees future retirees comprehensive benefits equal in value to those Medicare now provides at no higher out-of-pocket cost than current law. Ryan and the Congressional Budget Office believe that increased competition would actually reduce out-of-pocket costs and generate savings for the government.
