How the Christian vote influenced the 2024 election

a vote sign on a pole next to a street by Janelle Hiroshige is licensed under unsplash.com

Political pollsters and pundits determined that the power of the Christian vote helped boost President-elect Donald Trump’s first victory to the White House in 2016.

Analysts also concluded that Trump’s defeat in 2020 was due in part to Christian voters either not turning out for the election or not backing him as the incumbent seeking a second term.

Where did the religious voting bloc stand in the 2024 election?

Christians made up 72% of the electorate this year and gave Trump 56% of their vote, according to George Barna’s post-election study he conducted as director of research for the Cultural Research Center at Arizona Christian University.

Barna concluded that despite lower voter turnout among many religious sectors, this year’s Christian support was “decisive and crucial in Donald Trump’s 2024 landslide victory.”

One reason could be that some Christians “felt more free in 2024 to be open about their support for Trump, having decided twice previously that his personal failings did not impact his ability to do the job of President,” said Tom Copeland, professor of politics at Colorado Christian University in Lakewood and director of research at its Centennial Institute.

Voter motivation is complex, Copeland said, but he believes that the apparent decision of Christians to overlook Trump's past actions and behavior that have seemed contradictory to biblical teachings was “definitely a factor.” 

Data from Nov. 5 ballots yields some anticipated outcomes and some surprises, said Paul Harvey, distinguished professor of history at the Colorado Springs campus of the University of Colorado.

The predictable: the evangelical vote remained the same nationwide as it had in the past two presidential elections, with about 80% of White evangelical Christians favoring President-elect Donald Trump.

“There was an attempt to create an evangelical group to support (Vice President Kamala) Harris,” Harvey said, “but as far as I can see that had no impact whatsoever.”

The unexpected: Not only did more Catholics go to the polls — Barna’s study states that 70% of Catholics voted, up from 67% in 2020 — but several exit polls, including that of The Washington Post and NBC, show between 54% to 58% of Catholics voted for Trump.

Whether on the low end or high end of those computations, Harvey said that constitutes the highest percentage of the Catholic vote for an American president in history.

The second-largest Catholic vote was 53% cast for George W. Bush in the 2000 presidential race, when Bush narrowly defeated incumbent Vice President Al Gore. The outcome hinged on a recount of votes in Florida, which had Bush still leading. Gore sued, but the U.S. Supreme Court ruled 5-4 that the recount stood.

The Catholic vote was split 50-50 in the 2020 election, with Trump losing to President Joe Biden, who identifies as a Catholic.

It’s possible that an increase in Latino men favoring Trump also elevated the Catholic vote this year, Harvey speculates.

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